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The first minister has faced sustained criticism from the other parties at Holyrood over the Scottish Government’s record on education.
During first ministers’ questions on February 27, John Swinney was challenged by Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar about the attainment gap between rich and poor students in Scotland.
Swinney responded by claiming that progress had been made in closing the gap, and cited a reduction in the overall difference in attainment.
The overall poverty-related attainment gap has reduced by 60 per cent since 2009-10 under this government.
John Swinney
Ferret Fact Service looked at this claim and found it Mostly False.
The attainment gap is the difference in the levels of educational achievement between those from the most and least deprived areas. Historically, those from more deprived areas have been less likely to achieve the expected levels of literacy and numeracy, for example, and have a lower chance of ending up in a positive destination after leaving school.
Research has shown that this gap has a significant impact on social mobility. It can have “real consequences for the life chances of those from disadvantaged backgrounds,” according to the all-party parliamentary group on social mobility.
The difference in attainment between those from Scotland’s most and least deprived areas is measured in various ways by the Scottish Government across different age groups. The Scottish index of multiple deprivation (SIMD) is used to define the most and least deprived areas.
Progress on closing the gap has been central to the SNP Scottish Government’s mission, with Swinney calling it his “driving purpose” when he was education secretary in 2016.
Then-first minister Nicola Sturgeon also said in 2016 closing the attainment gap between rich and poor students was “a priority”.
In response to Anas Sarwar at first ministers’ questions, Swinney claimed: “The overall poverty-related attainment gap has reduced by 60 per cent”.
There is no “overall” attainment gap that is published in Scottish Government statistics. There are numerous ways in which the poverty-related gap is measured as young people progress through school and beyond.
Primary school and secondary school pupils are assessed each year on their attainment of the expected levels in reading, writing, literacy, numeracy, listening and talking. This is released in the annual Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) statistics.
Prior to 2016-17, literacy and numeracy were measured in alternate years, and are not directly comparable with later statistics.
For Primary 1, 4, and 7 combined in 2023-24, the poverty-related attainment gap between the most and least deprived in reading is 17.5 percentage points. This has reduced 1.1 points since 2016-17, when the difference was 18.6 percentage points.
In writing, the attainment gap has reduced 1.3 percentage points since 2016-17 (from 20.7 to 19.4), while in listening and talking it has gone down from 14.5 to 12.2 percentage points, a reduction of 2.3.
The gap in attainment for literacy in 2023-24 is 20.2, 1.9 points lower than it was in 2016-17 (22.1). The poverty-related gap in combined primary school numeracy has reduced marginally from 17.6 to 17.4.
Secondary school pupils are also measured during S3 –when they are 14 or 15 – on their achievement in reading, writing, literacy, numeracy, and listening & talking.
Since 2016-17, there has been a 1.9 percentage point reduction in the attainment gap for reading amongst this age group, a 1.1 point reduction in writing. The gap between the attainment of the richest and the poorest in listening and talking has reduced by 2.3 points in the same time frame.
The attainment gap in literacy for S3s has actually increased since 2016-17, from 30.5 to 30.9. It has been reduced by 1.6 points in numeracy.
Attainment is also surveyed for school leavers at whatever age they leave. This is a measure of the poverty-related gap in those leaving school who go on to so-called ‘positive’ destinations. Positive destinations include higher education, further education, employment, training, and voluntary work.
This is measured for young people both three months after leaving school (initial destinations) and nine months after (follow-up).
A spokesperson for the first minister told Ferret Fact Service that Swinney had been referring to follow-up destinations in his claim at first ministers’ questions. According to the most recent statistics, the poverty-related attainment gap for school leavers going to positive follow-up destinations was 7.5 percentage points in 2022-23, down from 18.7 percentage points in 2009-10, which is a 60 per cent reduction.
In 2009-10, 75.1 per cent of those in the most deprived areas of Scotland ended up in positive destinations after leaving school. In 2022-23, this had increased to 88.9, an 18.4 per cent increase. For those in the least deprived areas, the positive destinations increase from 93.8 per cent to 96.4.
Progress on closing the poverty-related attainment difference for school leavers has slowed significantly. Since 2016-17, there has been 1.1 percentage point reduction in the gap.
John Swinney’s claim that the “overall” poverty-related attainment gap has reduced by 60 per cent since 2009-10 is misleading. There is no overall measure of attainment, and his claim is based on one specific measure – school leavers destinations since 2009-10. On other metrics, such as school pupil achievement, there have not been similar reductions in the gap.
Ferret Fact Service (FFS) is a non-partisan fact checker, and signatory to the International Fact-Checking Network fact-checkers’ code of principles.
All the sources used in our checks are publicly available and the FFS fact-checking methodology can be viewed here.
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Main image: Scottish Government, CC BY 2.0.
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